Make sure not to lose
What do most people that bet on anything want to do? WIN! Or more accurately “be right” and “not lose”. In the pursuit of not losing and being right the large majority of humans overlook if the bet they are making has value, or in other words, they do not even ask themself “is this bet worth it?” instead they are thinking if they can say after the bet is graded “told you so!” or “see I was right”. This is in the long term a fatal mistake that all humans deal with, regardless if they are betting on Belgian Water Polo or trading (betting) on financial markets, trading respectable companies like Deutsche Bank. In both cases, the human that is putting their capital at risk often ask themselves the wrong fundamental questions and lets their emotions of wanting to be right take hold.

The Besserwisser
The German term Besserwisser is a nice version of the term “know it all” (translated “know it better”). In the context of betting or financial markets often these people have nothing at stake. They do not bet themselves but rather prefer to act like they understand what is going on while sitting on the sidelines ready to do a little Besserwisser dance or pop up in your comments on social media totally out of context to remind you that you were wrong, inferring that they were right and knew all along.

Of course, when asked these people will deny ever betting or trading anything since, that would require them to talk a risk! Why would a Besserwisser take a risk? They know that they might be wrong, then how could they go around as if they are always right! You will rarely see these people pop up in comments if your bet was right, and if your bet lost but had value (meaning that you would take a bet like that again given the price) they will act like they don’t understand (maybe they don’t). What is great is that this is an example for everyone to see, this is exactly the wrong mentality for betting or trading anything. The Besserwisser mentality of wanting to be right and using emotional (or political) bias to guide risk.

What are you concretely talking about, Sir?
I am concretely talking about someone accusing me of guiding sheep to the slaughter in a post I made about the election. In this post titled “How to bet on the Election” I describe in a very simple way why Trump has betting value. Since we can see that the past election was indeed one of the closest in history and Trump was at times a considerable underdog it is not hard to see that there was, at the very least, some value on the Trump bet. Furthermore, if you read my post I suggest anyone emotionally, politically or general Bessserwissers to bet on Trump as well? Why? To hedge their politics, if Trump does, in fact, become the next president and they bet on Trump they win money, if Biden wins they get what they want politically (and maybe Besserwisserly). If anyone reading this thinks this is the kind of tout “all in Trump you will win” then please let me know and describe how you came to that conclusion after reading my post.

Not everyone is made to bet
If you can not get kicked in the balls and continue on, betting is not for you. If you can not lose, betting is not for you. If you can not imagine being on the wrong side of a bet even if you think it had value, betting is not for you, trading is not for you either. Who gets rekt in markets, Besserwisser and anyone listening to them. This is who is leading you to your slaughter.

Post Scriptum

I am more than willing to discuss any and everything on a voice or video livestream with neutral third party host. I have taken part in hundreds of youtube panels, countless real-life panels, and informal discussions. Ask around. If one would like to see the references of said panels, I am more than willing to reference them as to provide evidence with the aim of reassuring anyone potentially involved that I do indeed debate in good faith. Maybe I am wrong. Let me know on twitter, telegram, or below in the comments.

With the power of Zeus and the fury of Hades,

Theo Goodman

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